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Market Timer, Know
Yourself
Fibtimer's success depends on "your" success. We want
you to be successful. To achieve this requires not only
successful market timing strategies, which we provide,
but subscribers must also follow those strategies correctly.
One of the most difficult tasks for us at Fibtimer, is trying to help subscribers
understand what is required to achieve success in market timing. We can publish
the reports, but if the strategies are not followed correctly, the odds of being
profitable diminish.
This commentary covers some of the questions we would
ask every subscriber if we could talk to them personally.
Know Your Limits
Subscribers should use the strategies that suit them best. We have aggressive,
active, and conservative timing strategies. Make sure you know what sort of
timing strategy you are emotionally able to handle.
A novice market timer, who jumps right into an aggressive timing strategy,
might have a difficult time when facing several trades in a fast market. It
does not happen often, but it can happen.
If you are conservative, use a conservative strategy.
If you are a bit more aggressive, use the active strategies.
Remember that you do not have to make lots of trades to
be profitable. During volatile markets our more conservative
strategies are often the best performers.
Jumping The Gun
Another concern is new subscribers who trade immediately. Entering a new position "before" a
new bullish or bearish signal has been issued. We understand the urge to jump
in and get started, but in reality, "mid-signal" entries are usually more risky
than waiting for a new buy or sell signal. When a subscriber enters on his
or her own, mid-trade, the result may be losses that should never have happened.
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Patience is a key element to successful market timing.
You cannot rush profits. You "can" rush losses though.
So take your time and enter properly. You have years
of timing ahead. The markets have been around for hundreds
of years. They are not going anywhere. Wait and do it
right.
The Strategies
Our conservative and active strategies are designed to manage risk in volatile,
or sideways markets, and to correctly place us in bullish or bearish trends
when they occur.
Aggressive strategies often make their biggest gains
during bear markets. When everyone else is losing, the
bearish positions are making profits.
The aggressive strategies are often, though not always,
the most profitable over time. But if you exit the strategy
after a small loss, you will not be profitable when the
strategies catch a strong bearish (or bullish) trend.
There is an old saying, "If you cannot accept a loss,
than you will never succeed in the markets." If you feel
you will worry over multiple trades, or may not have
the discipline to stay with trades that at times go against
the market, use the conservative or active strategies.
Diversification
This all brings to mind the next important subject.
Market timers should diversify. Putting all your eggs
in one basket just does not make sense. No strategy is
perfect. Every strategy will have periods of non-performance.
This is a fact of trading the markets.
| "...If
you have all your timing funds allocated to a
single strategy, you are just hurting your chances
of success." |
If you have all your timing funds allocated to a single
strategy, you are just hurting your chances of success.
If you have the funds available, use several strategies.
If you do not have the funds available to diversify
properly, stay with the Conservative S&P Timer. It
just makes sense. if you do, consider the Diversified
Timing Strategy which has diversification built in.
Committing
Finally, there are those subscribers who wait to see if a signal is correct
before following it. This again diminishes the ability of our risk management,
built into the strategies, to work correctly.
In the aggressive and active strategies, the price we
enter at, can be quite different than an entry made two
or three days later. This potential is somewhat lessened
in the conservative strategies which typically hold positions
for considerably longer periods of time, but still should
considered.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
© Copyright 1996-2018, Market Timing Strategies, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
Fibtimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |
