| |
Successful Market Timing Strategies
A full understanding of our market timing strategies, and the
emotional tug of war that all market timers experience, is crucial
to success.
This page should answer most questions for those who are new to
market timing, or new to Fibtimer. We hope you will take the time
to study it carefully, as well as the recommended reports described
below.
Successful Market Timing
With Fibtimer helps subscribers determine which market timing
strategy is best for their needs, and also offers detailed instructions
on trading our timing strategies. Are you an aggressive, active
or a conservative investor? It is best to know before you
start a market timing strategy.
The Case For Market Timing
Diversification tells you how to diversify within market timing
strategies. Combining several good market timing strategies can
make all the difference during the inevitable sideways markets
that test the patience of even the most experienced market timers.
Please read "this" Questions & Answers page first, but then study
the above reports. They will help you become a successful market
timer, as well as to achieve your investing goals.
 
Is every trade profitable? |
 |
Any market timing service that guarantees that every trade will
be profitable (or promises unrealistic gains) should be avoided.
Successful market timing requires strict adherence to a trading
strategy. Not all trades will be profitable. This is a fact of
life when trading the financial markets.
Our market timing trading strategies identify trends, and once
confirmed, we take either a bullish or bearish (depending on strategy)
position. We use strict risk management in all of our trades.
Our aggressive market timing strategies may trade several times
a month in trendless markets, and during trending markets they
may go months between trades.
On the other hand, our longer term Conservative
Timing Strategies can go a year or more between signals as
they keep investors fully invested during long term uptrends,
and in cash (money market funds) during long term declines.
Risk management is the mainstay of our market timing strategy.
Not all trades will be profitable. We never allow losses to accumulate.
Before we take a bullish or bearish position, we know exactly
what our risk and exit strategy is, and every subscriber knows
it too.
|
Which market timing strategy is best for me? |
|
Know must first understand which market timing strategy best
suits your investment needs!
Read Successful Market
Timing With Fibtimer which will help you decide.
Our "Aggressive" market timing strategies will always generate
a larger number of buy and sell signals than a longer term (or
buy and hold) strategy. So, a longer term perspective should be
used to judge performance. Subscribers who trade our aggressive
market timing strategies should understand what such trading involves.
When we say aggressive, we mean aggressive. Multiple trades are
a common occurrence.
Our market timing strategies make large profits in trending
markets and provide risk management in sideways markets.
Market timing mutual funds requires commitment. Mutual fund market
timers must be willing to stay the course to reap the benefits.
If aggressive market timing is not something you will be comfortable
with, you should use our Conservative
Strategies which trade infrequently, but yet successfully
keep subscribers fully invested during long term advances, while
protecting them in cash (money market funds) during long term
declines.
Take a moment to read some emails from subscribers who have been
with us awhile. To read them, click
here.
|
When are subscriber's reports published? |
|
Comprehensive timing reports are published each weekend, by mid-afternoon
Sunday. They are emailed to all subscribers as well as posted
to the password protected area of the website. Four of our strategies
have daily updates. The ETF Timer, Sector Timer, Diversified Timing
Portfolio and Stock Timer market timing strategies are updated
after the close every trading day.
|
What are "Fibtimer Alerts" and when are they sent? |
|
When any midweek change in any of our mutual fund market timing
strategies occurs, we send an emailed "Fibtimer Alert" to all
subscribers, usually between 6-7PM, EST, and always by 9PM, EST,
the evening "before" subscribers actually execute that change.
Our alerts are specific, and explain exactly what should be done.
|
Do you reverse positions? |
|
Only our aggressive market timing strategies reverse positions
(move from a bullish position immediately to a bearish position,
or vice-versa) when our market timing indicators say a change
in trend is occurring. Our active and long term strategies move
to cash (money market funds) during bearish signals.
I am a new subscriber and Fibtimer is already in the middle
of a trade.
How do I start? |
|
We usually recommend that new subscribers await the next trade.
Entering a trade after it has already begun may be profitable,
but the risks are higher. It is up to you, but it is usually better
to wait. More information is available about mid-signal entries
in this report: Successful
Market Timing With Fibtimer
|
Which mutual funds do you use? |
|
---- Active Market Timing Strategies ----
Our Bull Pro Timer strategy usually follows the same
buy and sell signals as the Bull & Bear Pro Timer strategy,
but when a sell signal is issued, the Bull Pro Timer moves
to cash (money market funds). During times of extreme volatility,
the strategy may trade less frequently to reduce risk. This
market timing strategy is excellent for active timers who
are trading mutual fund accounts that do not offer bear
funds, or for those who just do not like the volatility
of reversing from bullish to bearish funds, and back again.
Using Rydex funds is NOT required. Many of our subscribers
use the equivalent Pro Funds which work equally well, or
S&P and OTC index funds from many other fund companies.
In our Sector Fund Timer we follow a wide variety of
"Industry Specific Funds" such as those offered by Rydex,
ProFunds, Fidelity and others. Timing for each industry
is based on proprietary "industry specific" market timing
trend indicators that Fibtimer monitors daily. In our subscriber
reports, we use the Rydex Sector Funds to measure performance.
The Sector Fund Timer report is updated daily.
The Small Cap Timer market timing strategy follows the
Rydex Mekros Small Cap Fund. Other small cap index funds
should work as well. We only track bullish positions using
the Rydex Mekros Fund and Russell 2000 Index as our basis.
When we are in a bearish position, subscribers should use
a cash position. Aggressive subscribers may use bearish
small cap funds, but in our experience, the volatility in
small caps will often result in losing bearish trades, so
we do not use or track bearish positions in the strategy.
In our Gold Timer market timing strategy we follow the
Rydex Metals Fund. Other gold index funds may be successfully
used. We do not trade, nor do we measure results during
sell signals in the Gold Timer as there are no known bearish
gold funds.
Our Diversified Timing Portfolio uses a mix of strategies
to even further reduce volatility. Currently, we allocate
20% to the Bull & Bear Pro Timer signals and 80% to sector
Timer signals. This is an active strategy and does require
that subscribers check the report each day at least once
for possible trades.
---- Conservative Market Timing Strategies ----
Our Conservative S&P Timer is our most conservative timing
strategy, generating signal changes only once a year, or
even less. It is designed to keep investors fully invested
during long term advances, and in cash (money market funds)
during long term declines. Subscribers may use most diversified
U.S. stock funds for this strategy. Even diversified small
cap funds work well and we track the Vanguard Index Trust
Small Cap Fund on the Conservative Timer Trade History page.
Typical funds used by subscribers
(small selection) for the Conservative Timer are: Dreyfus
BASIC S&P 500 Index Fund, Spartan 500 Index Fund, Fidelity
magellan Fund, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund, Strong Index
500 Fund, T Rowe Price Equity Index Fund, Vanguard Index
Trust 500 Fund, American Century Ultra Fund, Rydex Nova
Fund, etc.
The REIT Timer is a long term conservative market timing
strategy that can be used with REIT index funds at most
mutual fund families. In our report we use the Morgan Stanley
REIT Index (MFS) to track results. The REIT Timer is designed
to keep investors fully invested in REIT index funds during
long term advances, and in cash (money market funds) during
long term declines.
---- Aggressive Market Timing Strategies ----
In our Bull & Bear Pro Timer strategy, we use the Rydex
OTC and Rydex Nova Funds to measure bullish positions, and
Rydex Arktos or Rydex Ursa Funds for bearish positions. Starting in year 2008, signals for active traders who go to cash (money market funds) will also be included in this strategy.
Each position is used for 50% of the portfolio to reduce volatility.
Using Rydex funds is NOT required. Many of our subscribers
use the equivalent Pro Funds which work equally well, plus
S&P and OTC index funds from many other fund companies.
Our Bond Timer market timing strategy uses the Rydex
U.S. Bonds Fund for bullish positions and the Rydex Juno
Fund, which trades inversely to bonds, for bearish positions.
Profunds and other bull and bear bond index funds will work
as well.
The Fibtimer ETF Timer monitors most of the actively
traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and includes the
most widely traded ETFs, such as the QQQ, SPY, BBH, OIH,
SMH, DIA, TTH, UTH plus many others. Timing for each is
based on proprietary market timing trend indicators, "specific"
to each ETF, that Fibtimer monitors daily. The ETF Timer
report is updated daily.
Stock Timer - Although Fibtimer is primarily a mutual
fund timing service, we also monitor a very select group
of stocks that meet our stringent requirements of trending
history, acceptable volatility and liquidity. Stock Timer
follows issues selected from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Indexes,
covering a broad array of industries, and picked specifically
for their tendency to "trend" for long periods of time.
Each stock is market timed using stock specific market timing
trend indicators that have resulted in superb profits. The
Stock Timer report is updated daily.
|
|
What does it take to be a market timer? |
|
Market timing often means going against the prevailing opinion.
It also often means taking a bullish position when everyone is bearish,
and taking a bearish position when everyone is bullish. Some of
the characteristics of a successful market timer are:
They are independent and self-assured and don't worry
about how they are doing compared with other investors.
They accept that sometimes their investments will under perform
the market, knowing that over time, they will outperform
the market.
They accept that market timing will require them to make
frequent trades that may seem like mistakes, and a string
of successive small losses won't drive them up the wall.
They can adopt a market timing strategy for the long
haul and stick with it, even when at times it is discouraging.
They are able to obey stops, which usually require taking
a small loss to protect against a larger one.
They can ignore the mass media, which raise emotions
and thus increase the risk of not executing a trade. It
is often the trade that is hardest to take that winds up
being the most profitable.
They are decisive and willing to move at a moment's notice,
without second-guessing, when a market timing system calls
for buying or selling.
Perhaps most important and most difficult, they are willing
to watch their investments every business day without fail.
|
Top of the page
|
|
