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• Conservative S&P Funds Timer
• Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer
• Diversified Timing Portfolio
• International Fund Timer
Fibtimer offers four conservative market timing strategies for
investors.
Our Conservative S&P Timer for S&P 500 index funds and
Conservative REIT Timer for REIT funds timing
strategies are designed to have investors fully invested during
long term bullish market cycles, and in the safety of cash (money
market funds) during prolonged declines.
Our Diversified Timing Portfolio
is for more active market timing investors and uses five sector allocations of 20% each to diversify and lessen risk.
Our newest strategy is the International Fund Timing Strategy. Started in 2008 it uses the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) and
is a conservative strategy, going to cash during bearish market conditions.
The Conservative S&P Funds Timer and Conservative REIT Funds Timer strategies
are used by the following investors:
- Subscribers who not able, or do not wish, to aggressively
market time mutual funds such as we do in our active market
timing strategies. Buy or sell signals are typically issued
once a year (or less).
- Subscribers who do not have bearish stock index funds available
to them or who are uncomfortable using bearish positions.
- Subscribers using fund companies which have initiated short
term trading fees may also not wish to incur those fees unnecessarily.
They also do not want to be hit with huge losses during steep
market declines or bear markets. These market timing strategies
are designed specifically for such investors.
If you are one of the above, the Conservative S&P Index Funds Timer
and Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer strategies may be right for you.
The Diversified Timing Portfolio is more actively traded. It has 20% allocated to the S&P and Nasdaq bull and bear index funds following the ProTimer strategy, 20% allocated to small caps following the Small Cap Timer, 20% to bond funds following the Bond Fund Timer, 20% to an international fund (we use the Rydex international opportunity Fund) and 20% that follows signals in the Conservative S&P Timer.
It all comes together for a diversified and highly profitable market timing strategy. It is designed so that any one position allocation or market sector will not adversely affect the profitability of the strategy.
Performance histories for these three strategies are listed
below.
Conservative S&P Funds Timer
Timing Results from 1995
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions
| Year
1995 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 34.0 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 39.9 % |
| Year
1996 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 20.3 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 25.5 % |
| Year
1997 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 30.9 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 42.1 % |
| Year
1998 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 26.7 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 27.1 % |
| Year
1999 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 19.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 24.0 % |
| Year
2000 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 10.1 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
- 5.5 % |
| Year
2001 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 13.0 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 5.8 % |
| Year
2002 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 23.3 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.5 % |
| Year
2003 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 26.7 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 35.0 % |
| Year
2004 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 9.0 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 12.6 % |
| Year
2005 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 3.0 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.6 % |
| Year
2006 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 13.6 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 21.9 % |
| Year
2007 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 3.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 11.2 % |
| Year
2008 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 38.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.0 % |
| Year
2009 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
23.4 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 16.5 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL September 21, 2010 to SELL SIGNAL August
9, 2011 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 2.9 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.5 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL December 28, 2011 to SELL
SIGNAL October
24. 2014 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
57.2 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
90.6 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL November 3, 2014 to SELL
SIGNAL December
16, 2014 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| -
2.2 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
-
1.8 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL February 17, 2015 to SELL SIGNAL August
20, 2015 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| -
11.1 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
-
10.0 % |
| BUY SIGNAL November 11, 2015 to SELL SIGNAL January 8, 2016 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| -
7.4 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
-
10.9 % |
| BUY SIGNAL July 12, 2016 to SELL SIGNAL Sept
12 ,
2016 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
0.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
0.7 % |
| BUY SIGNAL Nov 23 , 2016 to SELL SIGNAL Aug
29 ,
2016 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
11.0 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
17.3 % |
| BUY SIGNAL Sept 1, 2017 to Feb
15, 2018 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
10.3 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
15.9 % |
| BUY SIGNAL May 11, 2018 to Oct
23, 2018 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
0.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
0.5 % |
| BUY SIGNAL Feb 13, 2019 to Jun
4,
2019 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
1.8 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
2.8 % |
| BUY SIGNAL Jun 10, 2019 to Oct
25,
2019 |
| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
4.6 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+
6.7 % |
|
|
-- Additional trade by trade details for the above strategy are HERE
Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer
Timing Results from 1999
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions
This strategy uses the CBOE DJ REIT Index (DJR) as
the benchmark
to measure performance.
| Mutual Fund
or Index |
Buy & Sell
Price |
Gain /
Loss |
| SELL
SIGNAL - Sept. 13, 1999 through
Apr. 3, 2000 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 3.0 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Apr. 3, 2000 through
Sept. 23, 2002 |
| MS REIT Index |
296.15 - 432.83 |
+ 46.2 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL - Sept. 23, 2002 through
Mar. 24, 2003 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 1.5 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Mar. 24, 2003 through
Jun 21, 2007 |
| Rydex Real Estate Fund (DJR before 1/1/04) |
29.82(d) - 41.31 |
+ 61.5 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL - Jun 21, 2007 through
Aug 31, 2009 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 7.4 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Aug. 31, 2009 through
Aug. 23, 2011 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
19.97 - 22.28 |
+ 31.1 % |
| SELL SIGNAL - Aug. 23, 2011 through Dec. 28, 2011 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 0.7 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Dec. 28, 2011 through
Aug. 19, 2013 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
27.06-30.74 |
+ 13.6 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL -
Aug. 19, 2013 through October
29, 2013 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 0.3 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - October
29, 2013 through
Nov 1, 2013 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
34.16 - 33.85 |
- 0.9 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL -
Nov 1, 2013 through Feb 19,
2014 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 0.3 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Feb 19,
2014 through
Sept 15, 2014 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
32.99 - 34.50 |
+ 4.6 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL -
Sept 15, 2014 through Oct
29, 2014 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 0.1 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Oct
29, 2014 through
Dec
16, 2014 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
35.66(d) -
35.97 |
+ 0.9 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Mat 23, 2015 through May
18, 2015 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
37.13 - 38.42 |
-
4.8 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Mar 3, 2016 through Mar
28, 2016 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
37.13 - 38.42 |
+ 3.0 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Mar 30, 2016 through Apr 8,
2016 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
37.13 - 38.42 |
-
0.1 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Apr 20,
2016 through Apr 22, 2016 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
37.13 - 38.42 |
-
0.7 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - May 26,
2016 through Jun 28 , 2016 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
37.13 - 38.42 |
+ 3.6 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Jun 30,
2016 through Aug 4 , 2016 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
37.13 - 38.42 |
+ 2.7 % |
| 2016 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
|
+ 4.1 % |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX -
Timed |
|
+ 9.5 % |
| 2017 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
|
+ 5.7 % |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX -
Timed |
|
-
1.2 % |
| 2018 |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
|
-
2.9 % |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX -
Timed |
|
+ 2.6 % |
|
Diversified Timing Portfolio
|
Timing Results
from July 11, 2004
The Diversified Timing Portfolio was added to Fibtimer on
July 11, 2004.
| July
11, 2004 through December 31,
2004 |
| 2004 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 10.4 %
|
| December 31, 2004 through December 31,
2005 |
| 2005 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 4.2 % |
| December 31, 2005 through December 31,
2006 |
| 2006 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 10.5 %
|
| December 31, 2006 through December 31,
2007 |
| 2007 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 5.0 %
|
| December 31, 2007 through December 31,
2008 |
| 2008 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain - 9.9 %
|
| 2009 |
| 2009 -
Diversified Portfolio Total Gain +
40.8 %
|
| 2010 |
| 2010 -
Diversified Portfolio Total Gain +
12.2 %
|
| 2011 |
| 2011 -
Diversified Portfolio Total Gain +
5.1 %
|
| 2012 |
| 2012 -
Diversified Portfolio Total Gain +
10.3 %
|
| 2013 |
| 2013 -
Diversified Portfolio Total +
28.2 %
|
| 2014 |
| 2014 -
Diversified Portfolio Total -
4.7 %
|
| 2015 |
| 2015 -
Diversified Portfolio Total +
8.5 %
|
| 2016 |
| 2016 -
Diversified Portfolio Total +
15.7 %
|
| 2017 |
| 2017 -
Diversified Portfolio Total +
7.2 %
|
| 2018 |
| 2018 -
Diversified Portfolio Total -
0.6 %
|
|
|
International Fund Timing Strategy
|
Timing Results
since 2008
The International Fund Timing Strategy was added to Fibtimer on
June 10, 2008.
| June 10, 2008 through December 31,
2008 |
| 2008 - International Untimed - 42.9 % International Timed + 2.4 %
|
| 2009 |
| 2009 - International Untimed + 23.1 %
International Timed + 47.3 %
|
| 2010 |
| 2010 - International Untimed + 5.3 % International Timed - 1.4 % |
| 2011 |
| 2011 - International Untimed - 17.8 % International Timed + 0.5 %
|
| 2012 |
| 2012 - International Untimed + 14.8 %
International Timed + 11.0 %
|
| 2013 |
| 2013 -
International Untimed + 17.9
%
International
Timed + 17.9 %
|
| 2014 |
| 2014 -
International Untimed - 8.4%
International
Timed + 21.2
%
|
| 2015 |
| 2015 -
International Untimed
- 2.9% International
Timed - 1.2 %
|
| 2016 |
| 2016 -
International Untimed - 3.0% International
Timed +
2.6
%
|
| 2017 |
| 2017 -
International Untimed +
21.0 % International
Timed + 15.6 %
|
| 2018 |
| 2018 -
International Untimed - 8.2
% International
Timed - 1.8
%
|
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