Trading Trends For Profits
In the financial markets, a trend is generally understood to be the current
market direction. Markets can be trending higher, trending lower, or trending
sideways.
But defining a trend so that it can be profitably traded is something
else entirely.
Trends can obviously exist for one sector while another is going in the
opposite direction, or no direction at all, and they can last for different
periods of time.
Just saying that a trend consists of "rising" prices, or "declining" prices
is not enough. Every day is different. A trend must be clearly defined
in order to be profitably traded.
And what about time frame? Are we talking about a trend on a 5-minute
bar chart where it could last an hour? Or is it of longer duration: days,
weeks, or even years? If you are a mutual fund trader, trend lasting less
than several weeks will be almost impossible to profitably trade.
It is easy to determine trends on an historical chart. Looking at trends
that have already occurred. But developing a trading strategy that will
keep you on the right side of future trends is needed to profit from trend
trading (market timing).
Note that we do not say market timers can "predict" the future. We are
not of the crystal ball camp that dooms many market timers to failure.
Instead, we say that trends tend to last for periods of time that make
them tradable. So identifying trends, and jumping on board, is the key
to profitable market timing.
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Successful market timers know
and use several facts about trends that give them an edge
in trading them:
1. While financial markets may spend time in consolidation
(sideways trends), they are more often moving up or down
for sustained periods of time.
2. A timing strategy that defines trends can be
used to take advantage of continued momentum in the market
place.
3. Trends tend to go higher, or lower, than most
investors expect. So correctly identifying and trading
a trend can be very profitable.
"Market timers usually
make the majority of their profits in only one or two trades
a year. If you don't take every trade, you will likely miss
the one that makes most of your profits." |
4. Profitable trends typically occur only once or
twice a year. The rest of the time the markets trend sideways.
Because tradable trends only occur once or twice a year, market timers
must be prepared to sometimes wait months before catching that one
highly profitable trend.
a. To be consistently successful over time, market
timers must have clear rules telling them when to enter, and when to
exit.
b. When in a sideways trend, market timers may have
trades that result in small losses, or small gains. These small losses
and gains "must" be accepted because timers "must" trade every identified
trend change. There is no way to know "ahead of time" which trend will
be the highly profitable one.
c. Market timers usually make the majority of their
profits in only one or two trades a year. If you don't take every trade,
you will likely miss the one that makes most of your profits.
d. When the markets are in a bullish or bearish trend,
trading position changes may not occur for months at a time as the
trend progresses. Exiting early to lock in profits can cost you dearly.
The trend must be allowed to play out without making unnecessary trades
because of volatile short-term conditions.
e. A profitable trading strategy will "not" allow
a market timer to miss that trade!
Correctly identifying and trading financial market trends with mutual
funds, ETF's and even carefully selected stocks, is doable, profitable,
and with a well-tested trading strategy can achieve results far above "buy-and-hold" investing.
Market timing, when following a well thought out trading strategy,
is actually "less" risky than a buy and hold approach. Imagine the
benefit when all bear market losses are removed from the equation!
The active investing style used in Fibtimer's market timing strategies
(identifying and trading trends) prevents huge losses in the inevitable
bear markets (or any large decline that is of substantial duration).
If bearish strategies are used in the timing strategy, declining markets
actually add to profits as they did in our Bull & Bear Protimer
Strategy in 2001-2003 and 2008-2009.
Market timers, when following a well defined and tested timing
strategy that identifies market trends, will consistently beat the market
over any fair time frame.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
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All Rights Reserved.
Fibtimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |