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Money And Emotions
Possibly the most difficult aspect of successful market timing is dealing
with our emotions. Like oil and water, Money And Emotions do NOT mix.
There is nothing wrong with emotions of course. A good love story can fill the
eyes with tears. Injustice can fill your heart with anger, and a job well done
can fill your soul with feelings of well being.
But when it comes to dealing with your money, emotions can be your worst enemy.
The same emotions which fill us with elation during times of joy, can also cause
us to buy at market tops, to hold onto positions long after they become losers,
and to give up when filled with despair, usually right at market bottoms.
Take a look at a chart of the stock market. It is easy to see the emotional bottoms
when everyone is selling at the same time.
It is also easy to see the emotional tops, when everyone is buying at the same
time. Huge spikes up on extremely high volume.
Most of those sellers, and most of those buyers, will lose their money.
Living In The Past
Although there are literally thousands of books written about emotions and trading,
the biggest problem market timers face can be easily summarized in four words;
"Living in the past."
Because we are all emotional about our money, taking a trading loss, or worse
yet taking a big loss, has an effect on every future timing decision we make.
| "...if
you carry the emotional baggage of a losing trade
around your neck, every decision you make going
forward will be affected by it." |
What is the old saying? "Once burned, twice shy."
But if you carry the emotional baggage of a losing trade (or several losing trades)
around your neck, every decision you make going forward will be affected by it.
You will enter trades too late, to make sure they are not going to become losers.
You will exit trades too early, to make sure they do not reverse on you. The
end result? Losses and even heavier emotional baggage.
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The Current Trade Is The Only Trade
The most effective and successful market timers live only in the present. The
current trade is their only trade.
What happened last year, last month, or last week has no emotional bearing on
their current trade. The trade is based on a successful strategy, and it will
take care of itself. So why spend useless time worrying about it, and potentially
sabotaging it?
In other words, yesterday's trades are "out of sight and out of mind."
Successful market timers look at those selling climaxes on the charts, and the
buying frenzies, and see them for what they are.
| "It's
not about ego... it's about making money." |
Emotional responses to fear and greed!
Successful market timers ignore those emotional responses and instead trade the
charts. They ignore the big ups and downs. They ignore the daily news and they
especially ignore their know-it-all friend, who says "he/she" is absolutely right,
and "you" are absolutely wrong.
It's not about ego... it's about making money.
Trade The Plan
Trade the strategy. Trade the plan. Expect the markets to throw tons of darts
at you, but stick to it anyway.
Remember.... at emotional market tops and at emotional market bottoms, "everyone
is right!"
But a month or two later, although they may not admit it, better than 80% of
those buyers and sellers will have lost a good deal of money.
Sticking to a trading strategy helps combat those emotional feelings. The strategy
says when to buy. The strategy says when to sell.
Trading by emotions however, is doomed to failure from the very first emotional
high.
That is why we stick to our strategies here at Fibtimer. It is not always easy.
Even after 30 years of timing the markets we feel the emotions everyone else
does. But we follow the plan because experience has taught us it is the "only" way
to ensure profits over time.
Look at our various trade history pages. They show many large gains... but also
small losses (though never big losses). Those who emotionally give up after a
loss will never realize those profits. But those who "trade the plan" do!
Because our timing signals are created "by" changes in the market, and because
the only sure thing in the markets "is" change, trading the plan will always
succeed over time.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
© Copyright, Market Timing Strategies, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
Fibtimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |
