As trend timers, we would not have developed our timing
strategies without first researching not only the strategies,
but the history of the financial markets.
What we found, was that market trends are much more pervasive than most would
think. In fact, trends could have been traded just as profitably 200 years ago,
as they are today.
Looking back at price data for 100 and 200 years, the very same trending markets
existed. They endured short times of sideways (non-trending) movement just as
they do today, and long periods of strong advancing and declining trends. Yesterday,
just as today, trading trends would be profitable.
There are several important guidelines to successful trend timing that become
easily apparent. Again, whether used 200 years ago or today, they are just as
important. And they will be just as important tomorrow, ten years from now, or
any time in the future, as long as free markets are traded.
Highly Disciplined Trading Plans
Successful trend timing strategies use highly disciplined trading plans.
In the short term, the markets are run by the majority who are reacting to the
emotions of fear and greed. It is "comforting" to be moving along with the crowd.
That is why the majority do it. But it is NOT profitable.
The "majority" do not profit.
But the consistently profitable market timer maintains
discipline, and that means not only deciding to follow
a solid timing strategy, but also trading it through thick
and thin.
With a tested strategy you can trade without fear. You do not need a crystal
ball. A good timing strategy works across a variety of market conditions. It
may not win on any single trade, but its methods give those who follow it that
all important trading "edge."
Executing a trading plan using unemotional buy and sell signals, designed to
capture the majority move of all major trends whether up or down, removes destructive
emotions from the equation.
Ignoring Short
Term Volatility
Successful trend timing strategies ignore short term volatility in the attempt
to realize superior profits during major trending markets.
Trends can last months, and even years. During those profitable trends there
will be corrections to the trend. Exiting at every correction leaves a trend
timer on the outside looking in. Reacting to counter trend corrections usually
results in losses. This is why FibTimer stands steady during such corrections.
The is an almost overwhelming desire to "act" in the face of an adverse market
move.
Often it is labelled "avoiding volatility" with the assumption being that volatility
is bad.
But avoiding volatility often inhibits the ability to stay with the current
long term trend. The desire to have close stops, and to preserve "open trade" profits
has enormous costs over time.
Long term timing strategies do not avoid volatility. They patiently sit though
it. This reduces the chances of being forced out of a position in the middle
of a long term move.
Finally, a successful trend timing strategy, never allows losses to accumulate.
Trend timers are protected from large losses by their strategy which never
allows a failed trend to hurt capital. Trendless and/or volatile markets are
inevitable. But a good timing strategy protects capital.
| "Trend
timers believe the markets are smarter than any
of us. Successful trend timers identify trends,
and patiently allow them to play out." |
You cannot avoid the occasional failed trend and you cannot avoid the occasional
trendless market. But a good timing strategy will not allow losses to accumulate.
Capital is kept intact so when the next profitable trend begins, we are ready
to jump on board and ride it to the end.
Conclusion
At FibTimer we offer weekly analysis to prepare subscribers for what is "likely" to
come. Better to be prepared than to be hit with surprises.
But we never presuppose that we are so smart we can tell, unerringly, what the
markets will do next.
Trend timers do not try to anticipate reversals or breakouts. They respond to
them.
Trend timers are not prognosticators. We just identify and follow trends.
Trend timers believe the markets are smarter than any of us. We make it our business
not to try to figure out why the markets are going up or down, or even where
they are going to stop.
Successful trend timers identify trends, and patiently allow them to play out.
We will now make a prediction, even though we say predictions are a fools game.
This is a prediction (we predict) that will stand the test of time.
Prediction: Stocks will never go up forever because trends always
reverse themselves. Stocks will never go down forever because trends eventually
reverse themselves. At FibTimer, we will "always" be on board all major and profitable
trends. During sideways non-trending markets, we may not profit, but we will
always preserve capital. And lastly, over any fair time frame (2-3 years) FibTimer
will always profit and successfully "beat" the markets.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
© Copyright 1996-2018, Market Timing Strategies, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
Fibtimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.
