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Can You Predict The
Future?
Most investors believe they can predict the future. Or
at least, that someone else can. At Fibtimer, we rely on
the fact that most investors are convinced they can predict
the future. This is where most of our profits come from.
Their errors.
In the world of investing, it is prices, not investors,
that predict the future.
Looking For The Holy Grail
As our subscribers know, Fibtimer identifies and trades
trends. We do not use hocus pocus to forecast the market's
direction. We identify the trend and go with it.
Over many years of market timing we have realized that
trying to predict the future course of the financial markets
is a sure path to losses. But trading trends, which is
not predicting but going with the already identified direction
of the markets, has produced consistent profits for as
long as free markets have existed.
But this is just too simple an answer for most investors.
Looking for the Holy Grail, investors spend untold sums of money on analysis
software, trading systems, and market gurus. All in order to predict the future.
However there is no Holy Grail. There never has been and there never will be.
But this doesn't mean profits, indeed huge profits, cannot be made in the markets.
They are just not made by most investors.
True Believers And Greater Fools
Interestingly, Fibtimer profits because we rely on the
fact that most investors and traders believe they can predict
(forecast) the future.
As these investors buy and sell, the "Greater Fool Theory" kicks in.
| "...Market
trends are born of changes in sentiment." |
Investors buy a stock with the belief someone will pay more
for that stock in the future. This continues as a stock is
traded up in price. As more investors buy and sell the same
share for higher sums, sentiment begins to build that higher
prices and profits are almost a certainty.
As more investors believe they can buy a share and sell it at a higher price
(looking for the "Greater Fool"), more and more investors (believers) jump on
board. Investor psychology in its most basic form.
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Of course, someone has to wind up holding those
shares with no one interested in buying them. This is when the trend changes.
The "Greater Fools" are holding shares they cannot sell without a loss. As sentiment
changes, the markets begin to drop. Eventually the new trend, to the downside
this time, builds a head of steam. Investors feel they can (or must) sell shares.
They will be able to buy them back at a lower price. (The Greater Fool Theory
in reverse).
Market trends are born of changes in sentiment. Fibtimer
trades the trends created by the the tens of thousands
of traders and investors who make them.
Trend After Trend.
Trend, after trend, after trend. All defined by changes
in price. They are rarely forecasted, or there would
not be so many investors on the wrong side of trades.
But trend traders, who understand that investors move with a herd like mentality,
can use this information to profit.
As the herd starts moving in one direction, what changes? Price.
Using price to determine trend, then jumping on board the trend and riding
it till the end, is where true profits lie.
Don't Let Anyone Tell You
Do not let anyone tell you they can forecast the future
direction of the markets. We will not tell you that we
can do it, and we hope you will not let anyone else convince
you they can.
| "...one
thing that has not changed is, investor's reactions
to change. Fear and greed still hold sway." |
Obviously, if 100 market forecasters make predictions,
someone will be right. But consistently being right is
another story entirely.
Following trends, determined by changes in price, is the only consistent path
to solid profits. It is not right all the time. Nothing is. But trends usually
move much farther than anyone ever expects, and in trading those large trends,
huge profits are made.
Nothing Has Changed
Change is constant. Because change is constant, uncertainty
is constant.
From uncertainty, trends emerge. Sentiment changes, true believers begin to
buy into the new rally, and another trend is born. Over, and over, and over.
Month after month and year after year.
The markets have come a long way in recent years, with instant quotes, trading
software, a mind numbing array of technical indicators. But one thing that
has not changed is investor's reactions to change. Fear and greed still hold
sway.
Fibtimer exploits the reactions of investors. Those reactions are embedded
in prices and lead to trends. In this respect, though trading is now done at
the speed of light, nothing has changed.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
© Copyright 1996-2016, Market Timing Strategies, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
Fibtimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |
