Buy-and-hold say the experts.

Buy-and-hold say the advisors who profit from your investment purchases though commissions.

Buy-and-hold say most mutual fund companies who profit from load fees so numerous in variety it would take too much space to list them all here.

Buy-and-hold say TV commentators and newsletter publishers who's clients already own the stock.

Imagine for a moment an investor, following such a buy-and-hold strategy, who planned to retire in 2002 or say 2008.

Depending on the index fund, the value of his or her retirement funds would be worth 50% to 80% less after the 2000-2002 bear market.

And if they did manage to recoup some of those losses, what happened in 2008-2009 when the stock market again lost 50%?

But those mutual fund traders who spent a little time watching the markets, who used even a simple 200 day moving average to determine that their fund investments were no longer performing well and exited to cash, avoided most of the losses and made money in money market funds.

Market timing doesn't work? Sure, tell us another story.

Change Is Inevitable

Market timing is based on the fact that 80% of stocks will follow the direction of the broad market. It is based on the fact that the markets trend over time, and have been doing so since the beginning of freely traded markets.

It is based on the fact that change in the financial markets is the one thing we can count on to always happen.

Simply said, the markets will always go up and down, and the majority of stocks in the market will follow the current trend. Change is inevitable.

And here is the key.

While over the short term, financial markets can seem very chaotic. Going up one day and down the next, seemingly with no rhyme or reason. Over time, they trend in huge up and down moves, easily seen on historical charts. And those long term moves can be traded profitably. Trend timers (trend traders) have been doing it for years. Quietly making huge sums of money while most investors, following the emotional dictates of fear and greed, lose.

Either Take Action, Or Go Along For The Ride

The best tools for making entry and exit decisions, in order to profit during upward trends and safeguard capital during downward trends, are technical analysis tools. Fundamental analysis does not take into account whether a stock is in a down trend or up trend. It is of little use to market timers. What counts is price. Is price rising or falling? Is it trending? Technical analysis can give us the answer.

As mentioned above, a simple 200 day moving average would have kept mutual fund investors (and most individual stock investors) from losing their shirts in the 2000-2002 bear market. It also would have saved them from losses during the 2008-2009 bear market. Moving averages are very simple technical analysis tools.

"You either use a methodology that takes you out of declining markets, or you tank right along with the declining markets (along with all the other buy-and-hold investors)."

Obviously there are better tools than the 200 day moving average. Not everyone wants to wait until a mutual fund has dropped below its 200 day average. Much depends on a traders time frame. Are they aggressive, conservative, or active? Their emotional ability to handle losses is also a factor.

Gains can also be enhanced by aggressive traders who are willing to use bear funds during declines. In the case of the 2000-2002 bear market, our aggressive strategies that use bear funds beat the market by over 100%. In the 2008-2009 bear market, our aggressive strategies beat the market by 59%. Even our conservative strategies were safe in money market funds.

But regardless of a traders choice of funds, whether or not they are aggressive, conservative, or just don't want to lose their shirts when the markets tank, market timing is the only answer.

You either use a methodology that takes you out of declining markets, or you tank right along with the declining markets (along with all the other buy-and-hold investors).

There is little choice. Either take action or go along for the ride.

We are market timers here at Fibtimer and have been for a very long time. We have realized the profits, and have also been through the ups and downs of many market cycles; bull, bear and sideways.

Exceptional results are made by following solid, tested, non-discretionary timing strategies for long periods of time. Poor results are the consolidation prize for those who follow conventional wisdom, park their brains on hold for decades, and let the markets decide whether they retire rich, or unfortunately, poor.