New Year's Resolutions!
Most everyone makes some sort of New
Year's resolution. And, most everyone
fails at following them for very long.
The problem with such resolutions is,
they are made because you already have
trouble sticking to
them, so one more promise is not going
to change things for very long.
But if this year was different, what
would your resolution be?
At Fibtimer,
we are biased. We want our subscribers
to make money. So we will make a list
of the resolutions we would like to see
our subscribers keep for the year 2014!
Realistic Goals
The most important "first step" is
to set realistic
goals. It makes no sense to set
yourself up for failure by setting
a goal that it unlikely to be achieved.
Do not set a goal to reach a specific
profit for the year. Those new to market
timing will most likely set a profit
goal of 30% to 40%. Can such profit be
achieved? Of course it can, but no
one knows ahead of time what kind
of markets we will see in 2014, so such
a resolution might very well be doomed
to failure from the start
We could see a continued bull market,
or even a bear market.
So here is a more realistic profit goal.
One that can be followed with reasonable
expectations of success.
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Promise
to stick to your
chosen timing strategies, so that
you can make as much profit as
possible, given what year 2014
offers us.
This
is realistic. You will make as
much as you can, depending on
what the markets offer us.
Sticking
to the Strategy
We
have said this, and written
this, so many times. But it
is so critical that we must
again say it here.
NO
ONE makes money in the markets
without following a trading
plan.
A strategy designed to profit
by using the ups and downs of
the markets to determine whether
you are in a bullish or bearish
position.
Trading
plans are what make the professionals
rich. They are the difference
between winning, and losing.
And
if you trade a plan, you have
to stick to it. The reasons you
can come up with to abandon a
plan cannot be counted. They are
so numerous that no article could
list them all. And they always
feel right at the time they are
made.
But
there is one sign which will tell
you that you are making a fatal
mistake. If you are acting on
emotion and making a decision
other than what your followed
strategy tells you to make, you
are setting yourself up for disaster.
Trading
plans are not just designed to
keep us bullish during a bull
market. That is easy. Everyone
is bullish then.
Trading
plans are not just designed to
keep us bearish during a bear
market. Again, an easy thing considering
everyone will be bearish.
Trading
plans are designed to keep us
from making rash
decisions are
times when the markets are volatile,
when emotions are high, when the
vast majority of investors and
traders are panicking and making
mistakes. This is when your chosen
plan will keep you safe.
So
if you decide to make an emotional
exit right at a crucial moment,
why did you bother to use a trading
plan in the first place? You will
be jumping out of the frying pan
and into the fire. It's up to
you, but a super New Year's resolution
for this year would be, "stick
to the plan!"
Impulsive
Trading
Another
great resolution would be to avoid
impulsive trading.
It
is not necessary to trade all
the time to be profitable. What
is important is to not allow any
trade to become a big loser.
"Look
back at all your impulsive
trades of the past. How
many of them turned into
disasters? How many of
them became big losers?" |
This
takes us right back to following
the trading plan. Impulsive
trading is
a trait that can only be stopped
if you recognize it as a problem.
If you are trading when your strategy
has not issued a signal, you are
likely being impulsive.
Look
back at all your impulsive trades
of the past. How many of them
turned into disasters? How many
of them became big losers?
Impulsive
trading puts you right in with
the majority
of traders,
and the majority are usually wrong.
They are especially wrong at times
of high emotions, such as market
tops, market bottoms, reactions
to news events, etc.
Don't
allow yourself to trade unless
your trading plan tells you to.
Try to relax and realize that
the plan is unemotional, and allowing
your emotions to rule will cost
you money. The plan will not.
Winning
All The Time?
This
New Year recognize that losing
is a part of the game? Every successful
trader takes losses. If those
losses cause you to jump ship,
you will then be without a plan
and riding the emotional roller
coaster along with everyone else.
Trading
plans keep losses very small.
This is what is important, not
the fact that you had a loss.
Trading plans also keep you "in" winning
trades. The urge
to take a profit is
another reason why market timers
act impulsively. Everyone wants
to profit, but giving up a big
profit to lock in a small one
is one of the most common reasons
for failure.
Small
losses and small winners do not
make you successful. Small losses
and big winners do. You must stay
with the winning trades.
We
do not exit winning
trades until the trend reverses.
Pulling
The Trigger
For
all those subscribers who have
difficulty with being impulsive,
there are also those who recognize
the importance of following a
trading plan, but when the signal
is issued, have a great deal of
trouble executing it.
If
the market has rallied that day,
and the signal is a bearish one,
they decide to wait a day and
see if it is correct. Then maybe
another day, and another.
"Real-time
is different than back
testing. Back testing
is always profitable.
Real-time separates the
hucksters from the professionals." |
Signals
are often not profitable immediately.
They are often made against the
prevailing sentiment. Those who
procrastinate will likely find
themselves on the outside looking
in. If they wait for the trade
to be profitable, they will have
lost some of the profits for themselves.
Second
guessing a buy or sell signal
is a sure way to miss out on profits,
or increase your risk of losses.
Diversification
Spread
your investments out a bit. This
year the falling dollar made substantial
profits while gold stock funds
rose, but then sold off into the
year's end. Having several timing
positions that are in different
sectors brings in solid gains
year after year, while limiting
losses to only a portion of your
investments
Select
several of our timing strategies.
Some aggressive, and some conservative.
If any one of them under performs,
you will be very happy you diversified.
Using
the Diversified Timing Portfolio
strategy
is
a
great
way
to diversify!
Conclusion
and New Year's Resolution
You
cannot know ahead of time what
the markets are going to do. Anyone
who promises you that "they
know" is lying. Anyone who promises
huge gains is lying. Any service
that shows huge gains very year,
with no losses is lying. Real-time
is different than back testing.
Back testing is always profitable.
Real-time separates the hucksters
from the professionals.
Promise
yourself to stick with your selected
timing strategies absolutely.
Take every trade. Take those trades
when they are supposed to be taken,
not after the fact.
Do
not place all your investments
in any one strategy. Especially
do not place it all in the most
aggressive strategy just because
that strategy has shown good previous
gains. No one knows what the New
Year will bring. Diversify.
Wishing
each and every one of you a happy,
healthy and prosperous New Year.
Remember that life is short. Investing
is important for your future,
but it is not the end all.
Spend
time with your families. Relax
and smell the roses.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
© Copyright 1996-2014, Market Timing Strategies, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |