Fear: The Enemy of Market Timing Success
"Fear" - is defined in the dictionary
as:
"...an unpleasant, often strong emotion
caused by anticipation or awareness of
danger...implies anxiety and usually
the loss of courage."
The fact is, all traders, investors, and yes market timers, feel fear at times,
at some level. What is important is how we address it. Knowing the definition,
and reasons for fear, can actually help market timers to overcome it.
In the book "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas, he describes how most traders
(market timers) "...believe that they know what is going to happen next."
This can cause market timers to put too much importance on the "current" trade,
and to lose focus on their performance over time. Market timing is based on "probabilities" that
make us successful over time. But too much focus on a single trade causes the
fear levels to rise. As this occurs, market timers become hesitant and cautious,
trying to avoid mistakes. The risks of choking under pressure (not making a trade)
build.
All market timers, at times, feel fear. But successful market timers manage their
fear, while losing market timers are controlled by it.
When faced with a particularly stressful decision, it is a perfectly normal human
response to revert to the "fight or flight" response. Either we do battle, or
flee. When a market timer feels such an emotional response, his or her decisions
are very likely to be adversely affected.
Fear of Loss
The fear of loss can keep a market timer
from executing a trade. Or it can keep
him from exiting a trade when the trading
plan calls for it. Either can be costly.
No one likes to have losses, but even the
very best timers do. The key is to realize
that you are worrying about the results
of "that" trade, and not concentrating
on executing the plan, which over time
will make you successful.
Trading plans, such as the ones we use here at FibTimer, take time. No single
trade makes or breaks the plan. Once you understand and accept that, it is much
easier to make the trades without the "fight or flight" response hampering your
ability to act.
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Fear
of Missing Out on Profits
This
fear is usually felt during
runaway rallies. All your friends
are talking about the incredible
profits they are making every
day. If you really look at this
in the right perspective, it
is a very dangerous kind of
fear. It eventually causes you
to buy in, and of course, when
you and thousands of others
who feel the same way react
at the same time, the market
is finally at its top.
Having a trading plan, and sticking to the trading plan, eliminates this fear.
You "know" your plan works, so you are not susceptible to the "greed" factor
that comes so easily in market rallies.
Fear of Losing Profits
This fear arises when you have a profit, and start worrying about losing it.
If you take your profits, you will feel like a winner! But you know this story.
The market will likely continue in the same direction, leaving you with an
entirely new set of fears.
Fears cloud decisions. And decisions clouded by fear, that feel right at the
time they are made, are more often than not... wrong.
Again, back to the trading plan. You know what to expect, because you have
a plan that "will" succeed over time. It "will" bring in those profits. So
a commitment to the "plan" relieves you of the fears of missing out on that
quick profit, and the decision that invariably turns bad.
Fear of Being Wrong
The desire to be "right" is in direct opposition to the ability to be successful.
The desire to be "right" is in direct opposition to the ability to make money.
A market timer's desire to be right, to be able to tell his friends how successful
he or she is, can become so powerful, that a he or she winds up second guessing,
the "plan." Taking winners too quickly, or holding onto losers in the hopes
that they will come back, or at least break even.
Conclusion
To sum it all up, "successful" market timers actually make their profits off
the "fears" of the majority of investors, traders, and even other market timers.
They do this by "sticking to a plan" and not allowing emotions (fears) to rule
their decision making ability.
FibTimer provides the plan. Based "not" on emotions, but on a sound "trading
plan." Fear can be conquered when you have a plan. As time passes, confidence
builds, and the plan will become easier and easier to follow. Stick with the
plan.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
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All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |