Trading Fears, We All Have Them.
It's How We Handle Them That Counts - Part 2
Last week we looked at trading fears that can keep you
from making the profits that experienced market timers
consistently realize. Last week's Trading Fears Part 1
can be read by clicking
here.
It is not the timing strategies that keep timers from being
profitable, it is the fears, which we all have at one time
or another, that keep us from making the trades. In Part
2 we look at more "fears" which must be overcome to be successful
in the markets.
Fear of Letting a Profit Turn into a Loss
Unfortunately, most market timers (and traders) do the opposite of "let your
profits run and cut your losses short." Instead, they take quick profits
while letting losers get out of control.
Why would a timer do this? Too many traders tend to equate their net worth
with their self-worth. They want to lock in a quick profit to guarantee that
they feel like a winner.
How should you take profits? At FibTimer we trade trends. Once a trend begins,
we stay with that trade until we have enough evidence that the trend has reversed.
Only then do we exit the position. This could be days if the trend signal fails,
or months if it is a successful trend.
Does this sometimes result in small losses? Yes. If we have a false signal
to start with it can. But we must look at market history to understand this
trading concept. History tells us that while there are times when the markets
trade sideways or make failed moves, once a real trend begins, it usually lasts
much longer than anyone expects it to.
"...because no
one knows ahead of time which signal is the start of the next big trend,
we must trade them all." |
That means for the few failed trends, the real ones last a very long time,
and generate huge profits. But because no one knows ahead of time which signal
is the start of the next big trend, we must trade them all.
What happens in the short term can be accepted because we are assured of profits
in the long term as long as we stay with our timing strategy. We do not try
to quickly lock in profits. We stay with the trend until the trend changes.
This way we obtain every bit of profit that the markets will give us. And...
we do not have to worry about locking in gains. We let the markets themselves
tell us when to do it.
Fear of Not Being Right
Too many market timers care too much about being proven right in their analysis
on each trade, as opposed to looking at timing as a probability game in which
they will be both right and wrong on individual trades.
In other words, by following the timing strategy we create positive results
over time.
The desire to focus on being right instead of making money is a function of
the individual's ego, and to be successful you must trade without ego at all
costs.
Ego leads to equating the timer's net worth with his self-worth, which results
in the desire to take winners too quickly and sit on losers in often-misguided
hopes of exiting at a breakeven.
Timing results are often a mirror for where you are in your life. If you feel
any sort of conflict internally with making money or feel the need to be perfect
in everything you do, you will not be able to stay with the timing strategy,
but instead will allow your emotions to step into the timing process.
The ego's need to protect its version of the self must be let go in order
to rid ourselves of the potential for self-sabotage.
If you have a perfectionist mentality when trading you are really setting
yourself up for failure because it is a given that you will experience losses
along the way in timing as in any trading.
You can't be a perfectionist and expect to be a great market timer. If you
cannot take a loss when it is small because of the need to be perfect, then
the loss will often times grow to a much larger loss, causing further pain.
The objective should be excellence in timing, not perfection. You should strive
for excellence over a sustained period, as opposed to judging that each buy
or sell signal must be perfect.
"...Years of trading
experience has taught us that there is no way to keep emotions from
affecting trading, except by following unemotional, non-discretionary
strategies" |
The great timers make losing trades, but they are able to keep the impact of
those losses small.
For the market timer who is dealing with excessive ego challenges, this is
one of the strongest arguments for mechanical systems. With mechanical systems
you grade yourself not on whether your trade analysis was right or wrong. Instead
you judge yourself based on how effectively you execute your system's entry
and exit signals.
Mechanical systems are all that we use at FibTimer. Years of trading experience
has taught us that there is no way to keep emotions from affecting trading,
except by following unemotional, non-discretionary strategies.
Conclusion
As a market timer, you must move from a fearful mind set to a mental state
of confidence. You have to believe in your ability to execute every trade,
regardless of the current market sentiment (which is often at odds with the
trade).
Knowing that the timing strategy you are following will be profitable over
time builds the confidence needed to take all of the trades. It also makes
it easier to continue to execute new trades after a string of small losing
ones.
Psychologically, this is the critical point where many individuals will pull
the plug, because they are too reactive to emotions as opposed to the longer-term
mechanics of their timing strategy.
And typically, when trader's pull the plug and exit their strategy, it is
exactly at that time that the next profitable trend begins.
Too many investors have an "all-or-none" mentality. They're either going to
get rich quick or blow out trying. You want to take the opposite mentality
- one that signals that you are in this for the longer haul.
As you focus on the execution of your timing strategy, while managing fear,
you realize that giving up is the only way you can truly lose. You will win
as you conquer the four major fears, gain confidence in your timing strategy,
and over time become a successful (profitable) market timer.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
Trading Fears, We All Have Them.
Market Timer, Know Yourself
Maintaining Discipline Easier Said Than Done
The Search For Overnight Riches
Trading Trends For Profits
Investor or Trader... Which Are You?
Wishing Upon a Star
Market Timing Facts vs. Market Timing Fiction
Buy-And-Hold? It Works...If You Have 40 Years Or So
Successful Market Timing With FibTimer
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |