Successful Market Timing With FibTimer
FibTimer's success depends on "your" success.
We want you to be successful. To achieve this requires
not only a successful market timing strategy, which we
provide, but subscribers must also follow that strategy
correctly.
One of the most difficult tasks for us at FibTimer, is trying to make sure that
subscribers understand what is required to achieve success in market timing.
We can publish the reports, but if the strategies are not followed correctly,
the odds of being profitable diminish.
Subscribers should use the strategy that suits them best. We have aggressive,
active, as well as conservative timing strategies. Make sure you know
what sort of timing strategy you are emotionally able to handle.
A novice market timer, who jumps right into our aggressive Pro Timer strategy,
might have a difficult time when facing several trades in a fast market. If
you are conservative, use a conservative strategy.
Another concern is for new subscribers who trade immediately. Entering a new
position before a
new bullish or bearish signal has been issued. We understand the urge to jump
in and get started, but in reality, mid-signal entries add risk.
Our strategies are designed to manage risk in volatile, or sideways markets,
and to correctly place us in bullish or bearish trends when they occur. In the
aggressive strategies, small losses are
a normal part of trading. The aggressive strategies are the most profitable over
time, but if you exit the strategy after a small loss, you will not be
profitable when the strategies catch a strong trend.
It is amazing how many subscribers will cancel after a
3-4% loss or a period of months with no gains. Then after
we have a 20% or 30% gain six months or a year later, they
all come back. But they return when they see the profits
and that means it was "after" the
gains were made. You have to stay to make the profits we
show in our trade history pages.
Finally, there are those subscribers who wait to see if a signal is correct before
following it. This again diminishes the ability of our risk management, built
into the strategies, to work correctly. The prices we enter
at, can be quite different than those realized with an entry made two or three
days later.
Know Yourself
Before using any of our timing strategies, be sure you
know yourself. What type of investor, or trader, are
you?
a. Are you looking for a timing strategy that will keep
you in bull markets, and protect you from bear markets,
with few timing decisions that have to be faced? Are
you close to retirement and just do not want to risk
having a bear market, such as we had in 2000-2002 and
again in 2008-2009, decimate your savings by 50-80%?
If this is you, use the Conservative
S&P Timer, which trades infrequently, and only goes to cash to avoid
potential long term declines.
b. Are you an active trader, but uncomfortable with
taking bearish positions (betting the market will go
down)? Are you unable to trade bear mutual funds because
they are not available to you? Many subscribers cannot
make bearish trades. If you are one of them, but want
to market time with those funds available to you, use
one or several of the active strategies. The Sector Fund
Timer being one of the most popular.
If you have access to sector funds, which are available
in several fund families (we use Rydex Funds), our Sector
Fund Timer is one of the best timing strategies we have
ever developed. It is meant to be traded with at least
8 positions (diversification) and is less volatile than
you might think. If a sector has a large sell off, it
only affects 1/8th of the portfolio. If a sector get
whipsawed, again only 1/8th is affected. Which of the
16 covered sectors funds are best? Usually the first
funds that turn bullish outperform the rest. Trading
the first eight is a good approach.
Sector funds, when they trend, often move faster and farther then the market
in general, and usually further than anyone expects. The potential of the
Sector Timer for future profits is huge. We consider this an "Active" timing
strategy, but not an aggressive one. Sectors move to cash during declines,
adding stability to the strategy.
c. The Gold Timer, Bond Timer and Small Cap
Timer strategies are all "Aggressive". They are single industry timers
and should only be used for a "portion" of your investment
capital. They should NOT be used for all your trading
capital. Gold bugs take note...it is not a good idea
to trade only gold funds. They can move against you 10%
in a single day.
Yes, a great deal of money can be made in the Gold Fund Timer when it trends,
and over time, gold funds are big winners for market timers. But, if you
put all your eggs in one basket, a sharp swing in the wrong direction may
scare you out of the strategy. The next move will probably be the one with
the huge profits, but you will not be there.
d. The ETF and Stock Timer strategies are only for traders
who understand "Aggressive" trading strategies. If you
are such a trader, read the trading instructions on each
report. If you are not, do not use these strategies.
They often trade every day, and must be actively followed.
Correctly Using Our Timing Strategies
Below we will detail a few of the most important rules for
successfully trading our timing strategies. We have been market timing
for many years and know that following the strategies correctly is critical
to success.
If you, as a new subscriber, follow the rules and
give the strategies "proper time" to work, you will not only be profitable,
but you will do something few others achieve. You will "beat" the markets.
a. Commit to a realistic time frame. We suggest one to two
years. While your first buy or sell signal may be profitable, it also may "not" be.
Often, in a volatile market, the aggressive strategies will have small
losses. That is a small price to pay for being certain to catch the big
(profitable) trend when it finally materializes.
b. Try to avoid mid-signal entries. Jumping the gun and
entering in the middle of a trade can lessen the effectiveness of the risk
management that is built into our strategies. One exception of course is
the Conservative S&P Timer. Directions for entering this mid-trade
are at the bottom of the Conservative S&P Timer report page.
c. Take all trades. You cannot pick and chose according to
how you feel the market will do. That adds emotion to an unemotional trading
strategy. Almost without doubt, you will lose money. You must take ALL
the trades so that when the big trade occurs, the one that makes most of
that year's profits, you are on board.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
Job Search: Market Timer Needed
The Perfectionist Trader
Focus On The War, Not The Battle
Quick Profits vs. The Virtue Of Patience
Reaping Rewards Over Time
Emotions And Trading
Controlling Impulses Key To Market Timing Profitability
The Irrational Investor
Two Emotions That Can Influence Your Trading
A Market Timer's Worst Enemy
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All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |