The Case For Market Timing Diversification
Definition: "Diversification" - a portfolio strategy designed
to reduce exposure to risk by combining a variety of investments
which are unlikely to all move in the same direction.
Many Market Timers Pay Little
Attention
As we have written before, "market timing is the following
of a long term strategy to profit from the financial
markets, that also protects us from the inevitable down
trends that occur."
Many investors who understand the potential of market timing, pay little attention
to the potential of diversification. Many jump right into an aggressive timing
strategy with little thought about how they will handle a loss.
But there is a way to jump right in, and also realize the long term potential
of even the most aggressive strategies. It does require a bit more work, but
not all that much. Just a few minutes a day to check for changes and make adjustments.
Aggressive Market Timers Can Benefit
Many market timers already follow well defined investment plans that include
diversification. But as we just discussed above, some do not.
If you are one of those who do not, consider changing. Diversification is
not only for those who are afraid of volatility. It has an important place
in even the most aggressive of portfolios.
We have been market timing since the early 1980s and although we are quite
aggressive, we diversify our timing funds, not just for safety, but also to "enhance" our
profit potential.
"During
a bull market, you will be fully invested most
of the time, except in those few industry sectors
that are not doing well." |
Those who follow our Aggressive Bull & Bear Pro Timer
strategy will make a great deal of profit over long time
frames. Because the markets tend to trend most of the time
and the aggressive strategies will catch all trends in "both" directions.
But non-trending markets can be quite frustrating and aggressive market timers,
in our experience, become frustrated more quickly than most.
Aggressive timers.... try this strategy: Use the Aggressive Bull & Bear Pro
Timer strategy for 20% of your timing portfolio. Use the Sector Fund Strategy
for 50%. Divide the rest between Bond Timing, Small Cap Timing and Dollar Timing
strategies.
Although the sector funds go to cash on sell signals, these industry specific
funds are big winners when they trend. Often they will trend much further, by
100% to 200%, than the rest of the market.
Stick with the sector funds that follow major industries,
such as Health, Technology, Internet, Energy, Financial
Services. Most of the sector we follow are major sectors.
Pick five that are affected differently by the economy.
Example; do not choose Health and Biotech which have similarities.
When the bear growls, you will have 20-50% of your portfolio
profiting on the short side, or in cash, plus those sector
funds that are profitable even during a bear market (there
are always some).
You will make money, but have only a small percentage of your timing portfolio
at risk.
During a bull market, you will be fully invested most of the time, except in
those few industry sectors that are not doing well.
Diversified portfolios have a dramatic effect in controlling volatility and
drawdowns. Yet can be extremely profitable over time. The best of all worlds.
Fibtimer already has a Diversified Portfolio Strategy
that can also be used. It divides your timing into five
distinct investment areas. Interested subscribers should
check it out.
Even Conservative Market Timers Can Benefit
Those conservative market timers who are willing to devote
at least a little extra time, can enhance their profits
by adding the Sector Timer strategy as a percentage of
their timing portfolio.
Being conservative does not mean you cannot be active. Using the Long term
Timer strategy will always do well over the years because it is designed
for long trending markets, and makes changes infrequently.
"Each market
timer will have his or her own style. Even a very basic plan can
be made more stable with diversification." |
But if you used it as a base for your timing portfolio, say for 50% to 60% of
it, you can easily be more active with the other 40% to 50%, and still be well
within the guidelines of "conservative" investing.
Again we suggest using the Sector timer. In this case "because" it goes to cash
during sell signals, and because it follows a diversified strategy of its own
(multiple positions are always used), it can add considerably to your profit
potential (sectors tend to trend longer and higher during bull markets).
Each His Own Style
Diversification can obviously be quite varied. Each market timer will have his
or her own style. Even a very basic plan can be made more stable with diversification.
For example, if your core timing account follows the Long Term Timer strategy
with 70% of its funds, allocating 15% for the aggressive Pro Timer strategy,
10% for the Bond Timer strategy and 5% for the Gold Timer strategy will cover
most bases, and yet still offer an additional level of safety.
Conclusion
Consider at least some diversification for your market timing funds.
We mention the Sector Timer in several the diversification scenarios above. This
is because it is "already" well diversified (at least eight sectors should be
used by subscribers who use this strategy), yet has the tremendous profit potential
inherent in industry specific funds (sector funds usually trend farther, percentage
wise, than the general market).
Diversification can dramatically help control volatility and drawdowns.
Diversification, when properly applied to your portfolio, will actually enhance
your profit potential over time.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
Successful Market Timing DEPENDS On Change
The Basics On Fibonacci Ratios & Elliott Wave Theory
Rules For Market Timing Success
Market Timing Discipline, Not As Easy As You Thought.
Discipline Equals Profits For Market Timers
Have The Markets Changed? Part 2
Have The Markets Changed?
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All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |