Market Timing,
Do You Have What It Takes?
Market timing works, and it works well for people who
actually practice it as a discipline. In theory, every
investor is capable of following the disciplines of timing.
But not everybody has the right emotional makeup to do
timing right. In real life, many people who try are ultimately
unsuccessful.
Timing puts investors on the front lines, face to face with the realities of
the market, every business day. To be a successful timer, you have to buy and
sell without flinching even when you don’t feel
like it. You have to follow your discipline even when you think the signal may
be in error.
You’ve got to do it even when you don’t understand why your timing
system is telling you to act.
Perseverance
Timing can get you in real trouble if you try it for awhile, become discouraged
and then abandon your plan in favor of something you find more palatable.
If you let your feelings guide you, you’re likely to bail
out of a timing strategy at the very worst time, when your investments are down.
Can you adopt a strategy and stick to it for the long term? Can you follow the system regardless
of how you feel about it and regardless of what’s going on around you?
Can you resist the temptations to act on impulse? Can you ignore the
many "hot tips" you may come upon every week?
Accepting Imperfection
Imperfection is one of the media’s biggest criticisms of timing. When you
are underperforming and experiencing losing trades, that media criticism may
shake your confidence.
The media often says market timing requires you to be right twice: when you buy
and when you sell, in contrast to a buy-and-hold approach in which you have to be right
only once: when you buy.
"Your
goal should not be to achieve perfection. It should
be to put the probabilities on your side. And a
good timing strategy will do that." |
Most of the time, you can count on your system to get you
into or out of the market "too soon" or "too late" to catch
the tops and bottoms.
If getting out at the very top and getting back in at the very bottom are your
goals, timing is guaranteed to let you down. And if that failure
will drive you nuts, think twice before embarking on a timing strategy, because
what you will perceive as timing mistakes will erode or destroy your willingness
to follow the discipline.
Your goal should not be to achieve perfection. It should be to put the probabilities on your side. And a good timing strategy
will do that.
Ignoring The Media
Almost unanimously, the press seems to have a blind spot when it comes to timing.
They say timers are misguided, and this view is widely echoed by the mutual fund
and brokerage industries.
Can you pull out of the market when everybody else is either getting in or already making
money? Can you get back in when your friends, colleagues, the media and possibly
your own gut are telling you it’s a dumb idea?
Making Decisions
Some people stew and fret and delay making decisions, even when they are convinced
they should do something. They are unlikely to be successful timers.
Successful timing requires quick action to move into and out of markets. One
of the most obvious truths about timing (and one of the most widely overlooked)
is that by the time your friends, your colleagues, your gut and the experts all
agree on what you should do, it’s already far too late for you to extract
the maximum opportunity from it.
Conclusion
Market timing works, and those who are able to stick to long term successful
market timing strategies reduce their risks in the markets, and enhance their
returns.
We know this as a fact after more than 20 years timing the markets. Although
there are times when even the very best timing strategies are not profitable,
we must remember that timing is not about winning on every trade.
Timing is about winning over the long haul. About reducing risk and protecting capital
during dangerous market conditions. About winning over the years.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
Profit Targets... Important? Or a Really Bad Idea
From Euphoria To Despair, How Market Moods Affect Your Trading
Are You Trading The Market? Or Is The Market Trading You?
Discipline and Market Timing
When Your Money Is On The Line... Market Timing And Emotions
Are We Lemmings, Or Are We Traders?
Discipline and Market Timing
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All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |