|
Pulling The Trigger
....the BUY or SELL signal has been issued. All you need to do is call your fund company or broker, or log into your online trading account and click on the "Trade" button.
But right at that moment, all the doubt and second-guessing comes to a head, and the buy or sell signal is never executed.
Sound familiar? It's probably the most common heartache faced by market timers and all market traders, and is only compounded when it turns out that it would have been a profitable trade.
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
Do any of these sentences sound familiar? Have you said these same words?
1. The timing signal says one thing, but this other indicator I have says another.
2. There is absolutely no reason the market should move in that direction. Everyone knows it... look at the current market sentiment!
| "Uncertainty is a powerful emotion that can weaken the resolve of even the best of market timers." |
3. What if the signal is wrong? What are the consequences?
Suddenly you become very good at second guessing. You can easily find a few dozen reasons not to execute the signal after all. You even feel good about "not" taking the trade... at least for awhile.
Perfection Does Not Exist
Uncertainty is a powerful emotion that can weaken the resolve of even the best of market timers. Some things you need to remember are:
1. At no point in time will all indicators be in agreement. That's just the nature of technical analysis. You are following a timing strategy that makes money over time. It is not always right, but it is profitable and it outperforms the market. That is what you need to focus on. Perfection does not exist in market timing or trading.
2. The obvious or logical buy or sell signal is not always the profitable trade. Sometimes the market is easy to read, such as during a long trending bull market, but sometimes its true nature is completely hidden.
3. All actions in the market happen for a reason. We may not always understand the cause, but we really do not need to! All we need to do is execute the trades and the profits will follow.
4. There is NO tested and proven timing system that is perfectly accurate. As for the consequences of being wrong, that's why you are using the strategy in the first place. FibTimer timing strategies are designed to NEVER allow losses to accumulate.
Then Again, What If The Signal Is Right?
The next time you feel uncertainty sapping at your will power, read the below sentences. Print them out and tape them to your computer monitor if it will help....
1. The timing signal says one thing, but this other indicator I have says another... However, the market timing strategy has a proven success rate over time, and not all indicators will be accurate at all times. So, I will execute this buy or sell signal based on the historical success rate of the timing strategy.
| "The trade you do not take, will likely be the trade that makes most of the profits for the entire year." |
2. There is absolutely no reason the market should move in that direction... However, there was no real reason that tech stocks should have made triple digit gains in 1999, and yet it happened. I have to trade what the market is doing rather than what I think it should be doing, even if the reason is not clear.
3. What if the signal is wrong? What are the consequences?... Then again, what if the signal is right? What are the results if this trade is successful. Remember that no one knows ahead of time when the next trend will begin. If they did, the trend would already have started.
Pulling the trigger may be the toughest thing to do, but it's also crucial to successful market timing. It's better to take action, than it is to sit back and let the market pass you by. The trade you do not take, will likely be the trade that makes most of the profits for the entire year.
Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services;
The Trend Is Your Friend
Controlling Impulses Key To Market Timing Profitability
Trading With Discipline Key To Market Timing Success
Is Volatility A Four Letter Word?
The Psychology Of Market Timing
Letting Your Profits Ride
Instincts vs. Market Timing Strategy
Immediate Profits vs. Delayed Rewards
Buy-And-Hold? It Works... If You Have 40 Years Or So
From Euphoria To Despair How Market Moods Effect Your Trading
For prior commentaries still posted on the website, Click
Here
© Copyright 1996-2008, Kollar Market Analytics, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |
