Sector Timing for Active Market Timers

The current markets are as volatile as any seen since the 2000-2002 bear market chopped 50% to 80% off the major indexes. Only in the past few weeks have the beginnings of a solid trend taken shape.

Volatility is great if it is within a trend, and it usually precedes a new trend, often causing unnecessary anxiety in inexperienced market timers. But volatility is also needed to profit, something that many market timers forget.

There is one strategy that is hardly affected by the volatility, and it is also quite profitable, year after year. For those who are active market timers, we suggest the Fibtimer Sector Timer.

Trading the Sectors

How does a market timer take advantage of volatility, while protecting himself or herself from the very real risks such volatility creates?

The answer is by trading the sector funds. Here is a "quick" list of reasons why:

1. Diversification: By having small positions in multiple industries, you reduce exposure to any single industry being affected by a negative news event.

2. Volatility: While individual sectors are no less volatile than the rest of the market, they do not move together. So the volatility to one's portfolio is considerably reduced.

3. Drawdowns: Because sector funds go to cash during sell signals, and because there are always some funds in bull markets at the same time there are others in bear markets (during which those sectors are protected in money market funds), drawdowns are kept to extreme minimums.

4. Good in All Markets: There are always single industries in their own bull markets. Even during a cyclical bear market, such as we experienced during 2000-2002, there were always some industries moving higher. And if not, you are still protected by being in money market funds.

5. Active Timing: Though sector timing is not aggressive, it is certainly active. You will always be trading the bullish sectors, and exiting the under performing ones. In some respects, it is the equivalent of running your own well managed mutual fund.

6. Trends: Industry sectors tend to trend. And when they trend, they often move further (in either direction) than anyone expects. During a strong bull run, it is common to find individual sectors that double the gains of the overall market.

Winning The Battle

The FibTimer Sector Timer strategy covers 16 industry specific sector funds found in the Rydex Fund Family. Several other widely used fund families also have sector funds, including Pro Funds and Fidelity Funds which can be used with our sector timing signals.

Even in volatile market conditions the Sector Timer strategy performs exceptionally well.

This year, most of the sectors have been in cash for a good part of the time. Over the past weeks they have begun moving back to bullish positions. This is proactive money management at its best. Constantly putting your money in the strongest sectors while removing it from the weakest sectors during down trends.

This is where the diversity inherent in sector timing stands out. Top performing sectors are where your timing funds are allocated, and no one sector can cause irretrievable damage to the portfolio should that industry collapse without warning.

But most importantly, as a portfolio strategy, sector timing has been winning the battle against a poor stock market, that only now may be finally pulling itself out of a substantial correction.

Conclusion

Over the years, sector fund timing may go down as the "best strategy ever created" because of its ability to target funds into "only" those industry sectors which are performing well.

The low drawdowns, low volatility and diversification inherent in sector timing, not to mention strong profitability, cause this strategy to stand out from all the others.

In volatile market conditions, such as we have been experiencing, sector timing can create profits while other traders are watching their capital evaporate.

While sector timing may not make huge gains during cyclical bear markets, being mostly in cash, the strategy will protect your investment capital. And it will then outperform during bull markets, always keeping you invested in those industries that are in their own bull markets.

Caveat... sector timing does require active participation. The FibTimer Sector Timer usually makes a change once or twice a week. Sector timing also requires a minimum account size. Remember, there "could" be as many as 16 open positions at any one time, and closed (bearish) positions should be in cash (money market funds) with those funds remaining untouched. A good guess is that a sector timing portfolio should be at least $25,000 to start.

The FibTimer Sector Timer only requires a couple of minutes a day to check for and make changes if they are needed. And we email those changes every evening to subscribers.