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Weekly
Report from the FibTimer Stock Market Timing Services
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It's Different This Time...Part II
Last week we began to answer the question asked us by many of our subscribers;
"...Is it different this time?"
Our answer... was "no."
To read last week's "Part One" CLICK HERE.
The markets have been unchanged for hundreds of years, and there is no reason to believe they will not continue unchanged.
Prices must either go up, down or sideways. One of these three outcomes "will" occur. "Change" is inevitable and has
been the one thing that can be counted on in the markets throughout history.
No advances in technology, no leaps of modern science, no radical shifts in how we see the markets will ever alter this fact.
Thus a market timer does not need to predict the future, or even attempt to predict it.
A timer only needs to know the rules of the game and abide by them. If the market goes up, be long. If the market goes down, be short or in cash.
Strategy Based On Change
Trend following, the basis of our timing strategies here at FibTimer, cannot fail over any fair time frame. Why? Because trend
following uses the one thing guaranteed to occur in the markets to make its trading decisions... "Change."
Trend followers are always poised to jump on board the next unexpected major move in the markets, and to profit from it.
A great trend following system adapts to and uses change. The "future" is its most important ally.
A good trend following strategy lets profitable positions continue, while quickly exiting positions that go against you.
Systematic Trading
However there is one way a trend following strategy can fail.
A strategy that is exited during unprofitable times will fail. You cannot know when the next profitable market move
will begin, so second guessing the strategy will invariably make you miss the next trend.
Starting a timing strategy based on previous results, such as those at Fibtimer, is fine. But if you cannot stick to the
plan, the results we achieve over the years will "not" be the results achieved by you.
| "Change is inevitable, and is the only market forecast we can count on." |
A timing strategy that is not applied systematically is not a strategy.
Our trend following trading strategies are based on the only constant the financial markets offer us. They are based on change. We make our
profits when the markets change.
When the markets are tough, you need only to execute the timing strategy. Having the strategy gives us the ability
to avoid making difficult decisions under pressure when we are most likely to make mistakes.
By trading trends we never miss a major trend. We only need to have faith in the system, and trade it. When the inevitable next big move
occurs, we are thus guaranteed to be profiting from it.
Conclusion
Change is inevitable, and is the only market forecast we can count on. Trading trends "always" profits from the big moves we
know are in the future.
But trading trends "requires" that we make the trades, in good times and bad. We will never know "ahead" of time which buy or sell signal
is the one that makes the big profits.
Lastly, a trend following timing strategy seldom enters or exits at the most favorable price in a market trend.
Instead, a strategy based on change seeks to close out losing positions quickly to preserve capital, and to hold profitable positions for as long as the
market trend continues to exist.
The change and volatility implicit in the markets work to your advantage. You won't make money without them.
Don't get caught up in the whys of the market.
Markets stay the same because they will always change. But as a trend follower, you don't care, and you always know how to react to change.
Recent articles from the FibTimer.com market timing services;
It's Different This Time...
The Search For Overnight Riches
Maintaining Discipline; Easier Said Than Done
Fear & Market Timing Paralysis
Beliefs of Successful Market Timers
Aggressive Bull & Bear Market Timing, The Truth Behind The Hype
The Basics On Fibonacci Ratios & Elliott Wave Theory
Which Is More Important To You... Being Right, Or Making Money?
For prior commentaries still posted on the website, Click
Here
© Copyright 1996-2005, Kollar Market Analytics, Inc.,
All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |
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